Three Factors That Could Improve the Chances of a Gaza Hostage Deal

Amid renewed discussions between Israel and Hamas, there are three key factors that may increase the likelihood of a deal being reached for the release of hostages and a ceasefire in Gaza.

Pressure from Donald Trump’s Presidency The election of Donald Trump as the next US president could influence the outcome of ceasefire talks. Trump’s threat of severe consequences if hostages are not released before he takes office on January 20, 2025, adds additional pressure on both Israel and Hamas. Trump’s stance might convince Hamas that the US will be less inclined to rein in Israeli actions, while Israel could feel pressured to end the conflict to avoid damaging Trump’s regional goals, particularly his broader diplomatic initiatives.

Pressure from Israel's Military There is growing pressure from Israel's military leadership, which has reportedly questioned the continuing war and its diminishing returns. The recent deaths of Israeli soldiers in Gaza have reignited debates about the viability of achieving "total victory" over Hamas. With analysts suggesting that Hamas is rebuilding faster than Israel is neutralizing it, there is increasing pressure for Israel to reconsider its military strategy, adding weight to the talks.

Weakening of Hamas’ Regional Alliances Hamas’ regional support has been eroded due to the diminishing influence of its allies, including Hezbollah and the Syrian government. The death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar further weakens the group's position, creating an opportunity for a potential deal. With Hamas’ regional backers in a weakened state, the group may be more inclined to negotiate.

Despite these shifts, challenges remain in reaching an agreement. The main obstacle is the continuing disparity between Hamas' desire to end the conflict and Israel’s goals, which could involve resuming hostilities at a later date. Key issues like the administration of territory that Israel might vacate and ensuring Hamas’ confidence in the deal’s implementation are still unresolved.

Nevertheless, the diplomatic momentum building over the past week, coupled with the involvement of Israel’s security agencies and key Palestinian officials in the talks, gives some reason for optimism that a deal could be reached. However, the outcome remains uncertain, and past negotiations have failed to yield results.